When I set out to write this piece about COVID-19, climate change and malnutrition, I asked myself whether there might be anything new that I could add to the debate, given the myriad blogs, commentaries and webinars already proliferating on the subject. In my quest for lasting solutions to the global scourge of malnutrition, it is important for me not to lose sight of the big picture, to learn from the past, and not to jump on the bandwagon when global priorities change.
In my hometown in Germany, from where I am writing these lines, the lockdown following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has been relaxed slightly this week; in addition to grocery stores and pharmacies, small shops are now permitted to open again. We have not been hit really hard here in terms of food supply over the past weeks. Following the initial wave of panic buying, the supermarket shelves are now restocked, and innovations are occurring in the supply chain. Besides home delivery, a drive-in system for purchasing fruit and vegetables has been set up. You order and pay at a booth, and the guys take the pre-packed box with fresh produce from the ramp and load it into the trunk of your car. This development allows certain businesses to keep trading during this difficult time, certain jobs to be protected, and the supply of fresh produce to the population to be continued.
Nevertheless, in Germany – a country well known for its generous social security system – even before the crisis, no fewer than 1.65 million people were dependent on food banks. Many food banks in the country have temporarily stopped operating in order to protect their employees and volunteers, with the inevitable effect of depriving customers of essential food supplies.
So much for the situation in Germany. To reflect on the situation in the USA – which is in consequence of COVID-19 is experiencing job losses of 26.4 million, unprecedented since the Great Depression – would far exceed the scope of this commentary.
The potential for a new global food and nutrition crisis
COVID-19 is having its most devastating impact, however, on low-wage and migrant laborers (and their families) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) as a result of the lockdowns and border closures imposed to contain the spread of the virus. When these workers lose their jobs, they don’t get paid, and neither they nor their families can eat. The expected economic downturn triggered by COVID-19 will exacerbate this dire situation all around the world. It will come as no surprise that there are people already today who claim that they are more scared to die of hunger than of COVID-19. In 2019, according to the 2020 Global Report on Food Crises, 135 million people were affected by acute food insecurity, with an additional 183 million people subsisting on its fringes. These individuals are likely to slide into hunger and even starvation due to the COVID-19 outbreak this year. Moreover, according to the World Food Programme (WFP), some 300 million primary school children have been robbed of their regular, and often sole, daily nutritious meal at school due to school closures.
Although the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) expects a record wheat harvest in 2020 and reported low food commodity prices for March of this year, countries in Southeast Asia have increased trade barriers and imposed export bans on food items such as eggs (Thailand) and rice (Vietnam and Cambodia, on a temporary basis). Moreover, the lockdown has already led to rioting in the streets in some countries. There is an uncomfortable sense of reliving the 2007–2008 food price crisis when “…weather shocks, greater demand for grain-fed livestock among a growing global middle class, biofuel development from grain crops, food stock hoarding, and globalized trade in food commodities … increased prices and dwindling grain stockpiles have caused civil strife and political instability.”
‘Nutrition in the Perfect Storm’
This quote is taken from an article entitled ‘Nutrition in the Perfect Storm’ that we published in Sight and Life Magazine in 2008, raising concerns about widespread micronutrient deficiencies during the food price crisis and the detrimental consequences of this development for nutritional status, health and wellbeing. During crises such as drought, flooding and locust plagues, poor families suffer reduced dietary diversity and forgo the consumption of relatively expensive micronutrient-rich foods such as eggs, meat, fruit and vegetables in order to fill their bellies with empty calories from starchy staples and energy-dense processed foods. The recommendations provided in our 2008 paper are still relevant for the current crisis: “… support micronutrient supplementation, fortification and food-based strategies to address micronutrient malnutrition among vulnerable population groups…” to mitigate the development of “a potential ‘lost generation’ of unhealthy children, and irreversible economic loss.”
The food price crisis of 2007–2008 was a contributory factor in the Arab Spring in the early 2010s – a protest movement across North Africa and the Middle East that in many cases triggered violent crackdowns whose long-term consequences are still being felt around the world today. With its power to destroy lives and livelihoods, COVID-19 has the potential not just to damage the health and wellbeing of populations but to trigger civil unrest, violence, new wars and increased tides of migration unless it is tackled effectively not only in the wealthy West but particularly in LMICs. Its effects are insidious and its ramifications far-reaching.
In this context, it is also worrying that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to the deferral of measles immunization campaigns even in countries that are experiencing a measles outbreak. This will likely be compounded by the UN recommendation to suspend planned mass vitamin A supplementation for children under 5. It is questionable how well alternative distribution routes will work as suggested. The re-emergence of vitamin A deficiency-related blindness and mortality in children will be the grim consequences. Granaries may be full for the moment at least, but the expected supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will probably cause more severe malnutrition than was witnessed in the aftermath of the 2007–2008 crisis. Sight and Life has responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by coordinating demand for food, with a supply of fortified food and supplements to a number of grassroots NGOs in India, Rwanda and South Africa and with a GoFundMe crowdfunding page to raise additional resources.
The compounding effect of climate change
The COVID-19 pandemic would seem to overshadow previous global priorities. This week’s 50th Earth Day, with its theme of climate action, has reminded me of a silent disaster that has the potential to compound the present situation. Rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere not only heat up the globe, creating drought and other weather shocks, but also reduce the concentrations of essential micronutrients in major food crops such as rice, wheat, maize, pluses and potatoes, potentially compromising the nutritional intake and consequent health of future generations. In the wake of the 2019 EAT-Lancet Report on Food, Planet and Health, Greg Garret and colleagues raised an intriguing concept: Can Food Fortification Help Tackle Climate Change? Data to support this notion is still limited, but given the massive contribution of food (and micronutrient) production to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, along with the fact that food and micronutrient production will need to increase in order to meet the needs of 10 billion people by 2050, this question certainly deserves further exploration. Relevant approaches involve analyzing agricultural and food value chains, assessing losses during food production, and identifying entry points to improve food quality and safety, including biofortification and post-harvest fortification.
Interest in climate-smart innovations is rising rapidly among the young entrepreneurs. At Sight and Life, we nurture and encourage such enthusiastic and passionate young professionals through the Elevator Pitch Contest by Sight and Life (EPC). Our most recent EPC attracted entries from 45 countries and three times more applications than previous contests.
The time to act was yesterday
The time to act to mitigate the consequences that the combination of COVID-19 and climate change will have on nutrition was yesterday. Many countries around the world have policies in place for micronutrient supplementation and food fortification, but in many cases these are not well implemented or effectively enforced. A considerable increase of effort is required, despite the pressing challenges of COVID-19. This will be more than a stop-gap solution: it will also be an investment for the long-term future of individuals, societies, and economies as a whole – even, I have no doubt, of the global economy itself. For all we know, adequate micronutrient intakes as part of nutritious and safe diets can only increase population resilience in the face of crises – present and future.
COVID-19, climate change and malnutrition have converged to create an unprecedented challenge for the global nutrition community. The dangers for millions of people around the world are imminent and very real. More than ever before, the knowledge, insight and commitment of nutrition professionals are in demand. In crisis, however bleak, there is always a sliver of opportunity. We may be obliged to distance ourselves physically at this challenging time, but we stand united as never before in our passion to end malnutrition in all its forms.
Our nutrition community has successfully engaged with other disciplines and sectors in the past decade, turning exciting new scientific insights into policies and programs that have the potential to deliver better nutrition for everyone on the planet. Now, as we face a universal enemy in the form of COVID-19, is the time for us to truly act as one to combat its effects.